Morgan Stanley has released one of the most ambitious long-term forecasts ever made for a private company, estimating that SpaceX could reach about $3.4 trillion in annual revenue by 2040, with operating earnings (EBITDA) potentially crossing $2.7 trillion, reports The Wall Street Journal. The forecast was shared as part of the company’s IPO roadshow, where SpaceX is seeking a valuation of around $1.75-1.8 trillion and aims to raise around $75 billion, potentially making it the largest IPO in history.
The projection becomes even more notable when compared with SpaceX’s current financial profile. The company reported around $18.7 billion in revenue in 2025, up from about $14 billion in 2024, but it also posted a net loss of about $5 billion as spending surged across AI, satellite infrastructure and Starship development programs. Morgan Stanley expects revenue to rise to about $330 billion by 2030, meaning the company would grow almost 18 times in just five years before expanding into the multi-trillion-dollar range by 2040.
A major reason behind this huge forecast is AI, not just rockets and satellites. Morgan Stanley estimates that AI-related business alone could bring in about $190 billion in revenue by 2030, compared to only about $3.2 billion in 2025. That means AI revenue would need to grow almost 60 times in five years. Meanwhile, other banks, like Goldman Sachs, are even more aggressive, expecting AI revenue to reach around $322 billion by 2030. In these projections, AI becomes the biggest part of SpaceX’s business, larger than both launch services and Starlink combined.
Another important part of the story is Starlink. The satellite broadband network has become the world’s largest low-Earth-orbit communications system, with more than 10 million subscribers across 164 countries, according to IPO-related disclosures. Some estimates suggest Starlink generated over $11 billion in revenue in 2025, along with billions of dollars in operating profit. The service is also expected to expand beyond consumer internet into areas like direct-to-phone connectivity, enterprise networking, aviation and maritime internet, as well as government and defense communications. Therefore, some projections suggest Starlink could eventually disrupt parts of the $1.6 trillion communications industry.
At the same time, Starship is also a key part of SpaceX’s long-term growth plans. The fully reusable rocket is designed to carry much larger payloads at lower costs and could support future markets like commercial space stations, lunar transport, large-scale satellite deployment, orbital manufacturing, and deep-space missions. However, not everyone agrees with these projections. For example, research firm Morningstar values SpaceX at around $780 billion, which is less than half of its targeted IPO valuation.
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Ashutosh is a Senior Writer at The Tech Portal, largely reporting on new tech, and intersection of technology and business. Ashutosh’s career spans across nearly a decade of technology writing across multiple platforms and languages.
